Conflict Trends


10 - 12 Sep 2018


PRIO, Hausmanns gate 3, Oslo


Siri Aas Rustad (




Marte Nilsen (


​Siri Aas Rustad, PRIO
Andreas Forø Tollefsen, PRIO
Kristian Berg Harpviken, PRIO
Henrik Urdal, PRIO
Scott Gates, UiO
Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, PRIO

​Is the world becoming more peaceful? Are more people killed in terrorist attacks today than 30 years ago? Can we expect more conflict in the future? The impression we get from the media certainly is gloomy. But what does the numbers and facts tell us? This course will give an overview of conflict trends based on large conflict datasets on conflict related variables. It will provide a better understanding of the larger global trends in the world, and give better insight to both academics, policy-makers and practitioners.

Deadline: 11 June 2018.

Course Description:

The course will give an overview of the trends in conflict, as well as insights into the coding, yielding a better understanding of the underlying data material. However, this course does not require any pre-competence within quantitative methods. The first day of the course will focus on trends in conflict, looking into topics like number of conflicts, type of conflict, battle related deaths and location of conflict. The second day will focus on trends in terrorism as well as how demographic factors can affect conflict, and how conflict affects demographic trends. The third and final day we look into the future and will cover consequences of conflict as well as how we can forecast conflict.


Day 1 – Monday, 10. September:

09:00-09:30 Introduction by Siri Aas Rustad

09:30-11.00 Lecture: Conflict Trends, by Siri Aas Rustad

11:15-12.00 Discussion, by Siri Aas Rustad

12:00-13:00 Lunch

13:00-14:45 Lecture: Location and geo-spatial trends in conflict, by Andreas Forø Tollefsen

15:00-15.30 Discussion by Andreas Forø Tollefsen

Day 2 – Tuesday, 11 September:

09:15-11.00 Lecture: Trends in terrorism, by Kristian Berg Harpviken

11:15-12.00 Discussion, by Kristian Berg Harpviken

12:00-13:00 Lunch

13:00-14:45 Lecture: Demographic trends and conflict, by Henrik Urdal

15:00-15:30: Discussion, by Henrik Urdal

Day 3 – Wednesday, 12 September:

09:15-11.00 Lecture: Consequences of conflict, by Scott Gates

11:15-12.00 Discussion, by Scott Gates

12:00-13:00 Lunch

13:00-14:45 Lecture: Forecasting Conflict, by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård

15:00-15:30 Discssion, by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård

15:30-16.00 Summing up by Siri Aas Rustad


​Application deadline: 11 June 2018
Essay proposal deadline: 30 September 2018
Essay deadline: 7 December 2018


In order to obtain 5 ECTS for the course, participants must get an overview of the readings, participate actively in the lectures and submit a paper of 4000 words, which is evaluated as passed.

The deadline for submitting the essay is December 7th 2018.

An essay proposal should be submitted to the course leader for approval by 30th September 2018 to The proposal should consist of a research question, an abstract/outline of about 200 words, and a paragraph on how the question relates to the course literature.


​Please fill in the electronic application form. PhD candidates should specify the topic of their project under 'Research interests'. PhD candidates get priority, but others with graduate studies from a relevant discipline may apply as well. In this course is also open for policy-makers and relevantpractitioners.

There is no participation fee, but the cost of transportation and accommodation must be covered by the participants. Applicants will be notified about the outcome of their application within a week after the deadline.

Course Literature:

​The course literature will be distributed to the participants in June.

Please address any application questions to Marte Nilsen.