Prediction in peace and conflict research
I am a PhD student within the Violence Early Warning System (ViEWS) project at Uppsala University. My dissertation project is centered around methodological development and application of new methodologies in forecasting of violent events. I also explore methodological issues within the current best practices for forecasting of such events, for instance with a focus on how to deal with missing data in predictive studies as compared to explanatory studies. Currently I am working on an extension of non-scale invariant classification methods, with the aim of incorporating these types of classifiers into the ViEWS project. I’m currently also working on long-term forecasts of regime changes and long-term forecasts of larger sized wars.